SberIndex: spending growth somewhat decelerates

Jun 09, 2021

Between May 31 and June 6, 2021, the dynamics of spending decelerated somewhat, with spending up 5.8% compared to pre-pandemic after a 7.2% increase a week before. The consumer activity index also weakened somewhat after hitting yearly highs (73.8 p). SberIndex analysts believe this is not a new trend, but regular fluctuations.

Nominal change (% y-o-y) without adjustments. Consumer spending increased May 31 to June 6, 2021, at a rate of 9.0% y-o-y.

Changes compared to weekly average figures for Feb 1–Mar 15, 2020. May 31 through June 6, 2021, spending growth somewhat decelerated, reaching 5.8% since pre-pandemic, down from 7.2% a week earlier. We believe these are regular fluctuations that don’t contradict the trends.

Estimated changes compared to the same week a year ago (% y-o-y) and those relative to a fixed period are starting to converge. Starting July, deviations will remain mainly in the service industry.

SberIndex analysts have also revised the May data upwards amid a strong performance at the end of the month. The final estimate here is +25.5% y-o-y.

The consumer activity index has somewhat increased the gap with its yearly highs (73.8 p) along with the general spending level.

SberIndex analysts reiterate that over the next two months it will be exceedingly difficult to interpret the evolution of spending compared to last year’s levels (% y-o-y), an integral part of the tracker, due to the extreme impact of the base effect. Stringent restrictions were put in place in April and May 2020, as a result of which consumption functioned at the minimum volume required to keep the economy moving. For a clearer representation of the evolution of current demand, a temporary comparison with the fixed period of February and the first half of March 2020 is being introduced (Feb 1 – Mar 15, 2020).

When publishing the materials, a reference to SberIndex (www.sberindex.ru) is mandatory.

SberIndex.ru is an analytical website by Sberbank that illustrates how life in Russia has changed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Today, you can find several key indices on the website based on anonymized data: a consumer activity index, changes to the activity index, and a tourism index. The evolution of gross payroll and changes to small business activity are presented in the Business section. The website also features research by SberIndex Lab (previously SberData), the Center for Macroeconomic Research, and more.