SberIndex: Payments to retirees and servicemen keep maintaining demand

Sep 14, 2021

Household spending added 18.6% y-o-y on September 6-12, 2021, barely changing since the previous week. SberIndex analysts claim that the demand is so high due to the lump sum payments to pensioners and servicemen, which contributed 6.5 pp to spending growth rate.

Free of this factor, spending is growing at a rate of 12.1% y-o-y in nominal terms, which signifies a further decrease, albeit a slow one, in demand across households.

Practically the entire spending volume is being injected in non-food retail, which is the reason for the sector’s sharp increase of 26.0% y-o-y.

According to our estimates, approximately 90% of the government stimulus checks are being spent on goods (38% on clothing, 9% on home products).

Consumer loans, yet another major contributor to the observed demand, are also being spent on non-food retail items, as expected. The proportion here is almost the same, with products accounting for about 90% and services accounting for 10%. However, the demand here tilts toward bigger purchases. DIY products, furniture, and home appliances account for 49% of the spending, while car-related purchases add another 17%.

The consumer activity index somewhat waned since last week, but is still close to 80 points (78.3 points last week) amid people spending their social benefits.

A reference to SberIndex (www.sberindex.ru) is mandatory when publishing the materials.

SberIndex.ru is an analytical website by Sberbank that illustrates how life in Russia has changed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Today, there are several key indices on the website based on anonymized data: a consumer activity index, changes to the activity index, and a tourism index. The evolution of gross payroll and changes to small business activity are presented in the Business section. The website also features research by SberIndex Lab (previously SberData), the Center for Macroeconomic Research, and more.